I make a distinction between an investment in something that generates income versus not. At least when income is generated, the value has some rational basis. With non-income generating assets, the expectation of a positive expected return rests on the bigger fool. Maybe he or she will show up, but maybe not.

WRT the reliance on historical performance, in some sense you can’t get away from that, in that we often base expected returns on some historical average. Same with expected volatilities.

(Good to hear from you. Hope all is well.)