What Could Go Wrong?
1/8/21
Politicians could take some lessons from financial professionals.
A core concept underlying a considerable amount of time and energy in connection with financial market activity goes to assessing and mitigating “operational risk.” With this idea in mind, managers have been schooled to consider the contingencies of what could happen and then take prophylactic steps to mitigate potentially undesirable outcomes. This is a protocol that deserves to be practiced much more widely. The lead-up to the validation of Biden’s victory and its appalling aftermath shows how the political leadership in America today has grossly fallen short of responsible management. Their “risk management” decisions get a failing grade.
“What could go wrong, and how do we protect against that happening?” This question is the foundation of any risk management course of action.
We’ve had evidence of Trump’s habitual lies starting from his challenge to Obama’s citizenship before he was elected and continuing, virtually continuously, to his absurd insistence that he won the 2020 election “by a landslide.” What could go wrong? Well, we’ve seen it. People believe him, and the consequence is anarchy and sedition. With attention focused on what went on at the Capitol building, I fear that many Americans may not be aware that the assembly on the capitol grounds wasn’t an isolated, one-of-a-kind event. Parallel gatherings occurred across the US at a host of statehouses; and while the actual violence in those locales didn’t rise to that which we witnessed in the capital, in at least some of those demonstrations the business of the state legislatures was disrupted, and state officials were harassed and threatened.
What could go wrong? We know the answer. The unfounded sentiment that Trump was deprived of his rightful victory is still held by a significant and vocal portion of Trump supporters. We’ve seen their capabilities, and they are uncowed. True, Trump will be out of office on January 20; but what could happen before then? A prudent risk manager should be thinking about taking steps to assure that the events of January 6 won’t be repeated on or before January 20. A wait and see approach is a dereliction of duty.
Those who’ve called for Trump to resign are correct in doing so. His lies and rhetoric have fueled the discontent that we are all witnessing, and he’s shown no willingness or capability to restrain himself. If he won’t go on his own, it’s right to apply the remedy of the 25th Amendment, and failing that… impeachment. The consequence of his lies has literally been deadly, and he has to be held accountable if we are to protect America from a repeat of just this sort of demagoguery. Of course, I have little confidence that any of these outcomes will ensue. Trump won’t resign on his own; the cowardly resignations of Secretaries Chou and DeVos are a reflection of the unwillingness of Trump’s inner circle to force him out; and too many Republicans in Congress have yet to condemn Trump for his transgressions. Without accountability, the past will simple be a prologue.
Susan Collins’ assertion that Trump would learn from his impeachment has proven true — but not as expected. Trump learned that he can operate without constraint, and he’s acted on that. In the remaining days, what could go wrong?
